Ellicottville Short Term Rental Forecasting
Ellicottville short term rental revenue forecasting
As a ski town, the Ellicottville real estate market is greatly affected by the rental market. In particular, the Ellicottville short term rental market. In a previous blog post, we looked at how Airbnb changed both the short term rental market and the potential viability of a vacation home as an investment.
Here, we look at the methodology behind forecasting short term rental revenues.
Ellicottville short term rental scenarios
We look at a number of factors when we try to forecast the amount of revenue we might expect from our Ellicottville short term rental. The first is to find a comparable property to gauge a sensible per night price. This is pretty easy to find as most Ellicottville short term rentals are advertised on Airbnb, Homeaway, VRBO and other short term rental sites.
For this exercise, we have chosen an Ellicottville short term rental on Airbnb similar to our Elk Creek chalet.
Ellicottville ski chalet for rent. Short term rental on Airbnb.
This ski chalet has 5 bedrooms, 4 washrooms and sleeps up to 14. This is almost identical to our Elk Creek ski chalet. Like our Elk Creek ski chalet, it is located on a large lot and is close to Ellicottville. It is a short drive to the slopes at Holimont and Holiday Valley, but not slopeside.
Ellicottville Occupancy Levels
Next, we need to establish the occupancy level we can expect. The occupancy rate is the number of nights that are rented compared to the number of nights available. For example, in September, there are 30 days. If your property is rented for 15 days, the occupancy rate is 50%.
However, finding occupancy rates can be more difficult. We have tried unsuccessfully to find the average Ellicottville occupancy rate. Fortunately, we have enough experience in short term rentals to be confident in our predictions.
We have also created an Excel spreadsheet that allows us to change occupancy and rates to create different scenarios. We can provide potential clients with a copy of this on request by email.
Ellicottville Short Term Rental Scenario
| Week Days | Average Price | Occupancy Rate | Weekends | Average Price | Occupancy Rate | Total Days | Period Revenue | |
| September 1st to 30th | 22 | $450 | 15% | 8 | $550 | 50% | 7 | $3,685 |
| October 1st to 31st | 23 | $450 | 0% | 8 | $550 | 30% | 2 | $1,320 |
| November 1st to 25th | 17 | $450 | 0% | 8 | $550 | 25% | 2 | $1,100 |
| November 26th to 28th | 3 | $700 | 75% | 2 | $1,575 | |||
| November 29th to 30th | 1 | 0% | 1 | $550 | 25% | 0 | $138 | |
| December 1st to 19th | 15 | $450 | 10% | 4 | $575 | 50% | 4 | $1,825 |
| December 20th to 30th | 10 | $800 | 75% | 8 | $6,000 | |||
| December 31st to January 2nd | 3 | $875 | 80% | 2 | $2,100 | |||
| January 3rd to 31st | 20 | $650 | 25% | 9 | $850 | 75% | 12 | $8,988 |
| February 1st to 15th | 10 | $750 | 25% | 5 | $850 | 75% | 6 | $5,063 |
| February 16th to 20th | 5 | $750 | 75% | 4 | $2,813 | |||
| February 21st to 29th | 5 | $750 | 25% | 4 | $850 | 75% | 4 | $3,488 |
| March 1st to 14th | 10 | $750 | 25% | 5 | $850 | 75% | 6 | $5,063 |
| March 15th to 19th | 5 | $750 | 50% | 3 | $1,875 | |||
| March 20th to 31st | 8 | $650 | 25% | 4 | $750 | 50% | 4 | $2,800 |
| April 1st to 30th | 22 | $450 | 0% | 8 | $500 | 25% | 2 | $1,000 |
| May 1st to 31st | 21 | $450 | 0% | 10 | $500 | 30% | 3 | $1,500 |
| June 1st to 30th | 22 | $450 | 20% | 8 | $575 | 40% | 8 | $3,820 |
| July 1st to 31st | 22 | $500 | 25% | 9 | $575 | 50% | 10 | $5,338 |
| August 1st to 31st | 22 | $500 | 25% | 9 | $575 | 50% | 10 | $5,338 |
| Total Days | 250 | 116 | 89 | |||||
| Annual Occupancy | 24% | |||||||
| Total Revenue | $64,825 |
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